Velogames Preview – Spain 2024

It seems like only yesterday that we were watching the conclusion of the Tour de France yet here we are, already at the final grand tour of 2024. It’s been a whirlwind few weeks with a fantastic Paris Olympics under our belt, and the lead up to this race feels a bit rushed. Final line-ups were only confirmed in the first half of this week, and with this early start, many of the riders turning up have skipped the traditional warm up races so form is a little unknown. This all makes it more exciting for me and the Vuelta is always my favourite grand tour anyway! So let’s get right into it and breakdown the what, where, when, who and possible how.

The Route

The climbing grand tour returns with more vertical metres than both of the others and loads more uphill finishes. There is only one true flat stage with a further 6 potential sprints, or reduced sprints at the very least. The 21 stages are bookended by two individual time trials adding up to just under 37km. The other 12 stages take place in the mountains with 9 of them concluding atop summits. This all equates to a race where the climbers will truly excel. There will be plenty of breakaway chances opening the race up for the attackers and leaving us guessing every single day. Let’s dive into the key stages that’ll define the race and the days you won’t want to miss! The profiles I’m using here are from sanluca.cc and are made for firstcycling.com, which is my go to results resource nowadays.

Stage 1: The first red jersey will be decided in a 12km individual time trial. Riders will have to be on the power to win this one.
Stage 4: The races’ opening summit finish and it’s completely brutal. There’s a 3km section of zig-zags in the final that regularly exceeds 10% average gradient.

Stage 5: This is the only flat stage and possibly the only complete bunch sprint.
Stage 9: Over 4000m of climbing on gradients often above 10%. The main climb of the day is tackled twice and is 7.1km long at an average of 9.6% gradient.
Stage 11: Week two is characterised with great attacking potential and stage 11 is perhaps the best of them, with plenty of places to launch potentially decisive moves.
Stage 13: Another incredibly steep summit finish, 7.5km at 9%, but the first 2km are virtually flat.
Stage 15: The first ESP climb of the race, a finish up the Cuitu Negru. A mammoth 19km climb, but the bite is in the last 3km.
Stage 16: Week three begins with another ESP summit finish, with the race returning to Lagos de Covadonga. Brutally steep and very beautiful. Perhaps only 2nd in importance to the Alto de L’Angliru in Vuelta history.
Stage 19: The final two mountain stages open up with an 8.6km climb at an average gradient of 8.9% .
Stage 20: This is quite possibly the most ridiculous stage of the entire year. Not an inch of flat roads and a quality finish on the Picon Blanco. This should be a classic.

Stage 21: We finish in Madrid with a 24.6km individual time trial to decide the final standings.

Velogames Category Guide

Nothing new for this race, but the Vuelta usually follows a pattern of higher scoring for those in the climbers category, or at least, they’re more likely to score well compared to the Tour and the Giro. So I’d pay special attention to those riders here. The other pattern to keep in mind is with the sprinters category. The last three editions of this race have seen one sprinter score significantly more than their peers. Whether that continues remains to be seen, but I will absolutely only be taking one sprinter and that sprinter depends on cost after taking my preferred general classification (GC) riders in the all rounder and climber categories. Let’s crack on with a full breakdown and try and clear the fog of indecision.

All Rounders

Primož Roglič, 24 Credits: He has to be the most expensive rider here due to his race history. If he’s fully fit then he’s a must have, but the quotes from him and the team suggest they don’t know how he’ll perform. He has posted good numbers in training, I’m just reluctant to take him based on so much uncertainty, and it takes budget away from other good riders.
João Almeida, 20 Credits: Fresh off the back of 4th place in the Tour scoring 1788 points in the process. He’s on some top form this year, and if he’s carried it forward to the Vuelta, then 2000 points plus is not out of the question.
Adam Yates, 20 Credits: An illness at the Tour still resulted in a 6th place finish. His last outing at the Vuelta was for Ineos in 2021 when he scored 1611 points. He and Almeida have formed a strong partnership this year, which makes them a formidable duo. I have toyed with the idea of taking both of these UAE boys and it is possible. It just leaves you with either a cheap climber or a cheap sprinter.
Carlos Rodríguez, 14 Credits: There’s a bit of a drop in price to our next rider meaning no all rounders priced at 16 or 18 credits. Carlos has found his home at 14 credits recently, but he’s yet to break 1400 fantasy points. His 3rd week in a grand tour is a little weaker than others and his kick let’s him down. He’s still worth good points, but is he capable of great points? I’m not convinced yet.
Daniel Martínez, 14 Credits: Returns to the Vuelta after a four year absence and coming off a superb 2nd place at the Giro in may. He’s here to support Roglič so don’t expect him to repeat his Giro heroics. There may be other, better places to spend your credits.
Mattias Skjelmose, 12 Credits: The 23 year old Dane is making his Vuelta debut after one Tour and one Giro. He’s yet to make a proper impact at grand tour level and he’ll need a step up in performance if he’s going to score well. Skjelmose is one of three or four cheaper options I’m temped with in this category.
Antonio Tiberi, 10 Credits: Ethics aside, Tiberi is leading Bahrain – Victorious at a grand tour for the second time this year and he did alright the first time around. 5th place overall and 1496 points at the Giro prove he’s got what it takes. The competition is a lot more stacked this time around however.
Thymen Arensman, 10 Credits: The perennial 10 credits Ineos GC rider, destined to finish 5th or 6th at every grand tour he enters and score just over 1000 points every time. This isn’t entirely accurate, but isn’t far off.
Marc Soler, 8 Credits: Adding him in the big boy section because of his 1342 points at the 2023 Vuelta, and his 1300 points at the 2022 Vuelta. If you want cheap, or a wildcard, look no further.

Above is who I consider to be the main options in this category, but there are of course others. Tao Geoghegen-Hart, Brandon McNulty, Jay Vine and Aleksandr Vlasov are all available for 10 credits. Vine did just win the time trial at the recent Vuelta a Burgos after returning from injury; McNulty has been having a steady and decent year; and perhaps Vlasov is due a good performance. However, I do think that all four of these riders are outscored by the likes of Tiberi and Soler. There are two or three riders available for 6 credits here who I wish were in the unclassed category. Eddie Dunbar would have been an interesting choice, as would Laurens De Plus, but I think picking either would be a waste of a valuable all rounder slot.

Climbers

Sepp Kuss, 20 Credits: The defending champion comes in at his most expensive price ever. This time, he is the undisputed leader of Visma and not a plucky outsider. He has been climbing well this year, but does anyone genuinely think he can repeat his 2023 ride? Last year, he got in the right break and then had the two strongest riders in the race as his domestiques. One more reluctantly than the other, but still.
Enric Mas, 16 Credits: Always more expensive at his home grand tour and for good reason. He saves his best for the streets of Spain and his form in the final week of the Tour suggests he can go really well at this Vuelta.
Mikel Landa, 14 Credits: Another rider enjoying a stellar 2024 and who should be on for a great Vuelta.
Richard Carapaz, 12 Credits: Coming here to win overall after a successful assault on the Tour de France king of the mountains (KOM) competition. A prime Carapaz has to be considered a contender and I’m excited to see what he gets up to.
Ben O’Connor, 10 Credits: 4th place at this year’s Giro was really encouraging for him after a difficult Tour de France last year. Felix Gall is co-leading the team and is also 10 credits, but you’d think O’Connor would end up ahead judging by their form.
Lennert Van Eetvelt, 10 Credits: He scored 485 points last year as a 6 credit unclassed. One year older and wiser, with a win at the UAE Tour and 3rd place at the recent San Sebastian classic. He might not score the mega points, but I’m very interested to see how he goes.
Giulio Ciccone, 10 Credits: His teammate is going for GC, which leaves Ciccone with a potential KOM charge or just solid stage hunting.
Max Poole, 10 Credits: Made his debut last year and was 4th on a stage. He has made progress this year, but 10 credits might be a little steep given who else is here.

Similar to the all rounder category, there are a fair few riders who I wish were unclassed, but there are still potential bargains to be had. Of the 8s, Einer Rubio is a good shout, but he’ll surely be helping out Mas for the most part. There’s also Valentin Paret-Peintre, fresh from a Giro stage win. Matthew Riccitello and Michael Woods offer an interesting choice for Israel Premier-Tech, with the former aiming for a top 10 on GC. Nairo Quintana is also making an appearance and he’ll be looking to roll back the years and recapture his past successes. Picking a 6 credit rider here is potentially a little desperate. I think there are are too many points to be had higher up, but the doesn’t mean none of the 6s will perform. Lorenzo Fortunato and Cristián Rodríguez are perhaps the best two if you really need someone cheap.

Sprinters

Wout Van Aert, 18 Credits: One of the favourites for the two time trials as well as all the flat and medium stages. I’ll be very surprised if he doesn’t pick up at least one win and he’s the favourite for the points jersey. He’s in really bullish mode before the start too. Winning stages here is his main goal for the rest of the year.
Kaden Groves, 12 Credits: Scored 1662 points last year as he absolutely dominated this category. The next highest scorer was on 706. I expect both Groves and Van Aert to be really competitive here, but the time trials give Wout the edge in the points competition. Then it comes down to consistency and breaks.
Bryan Coquard, 10 Credits: He’ll be looking to atone for a very quiet Tour by his standards, but compared to Groves, I think the extra two credits are worth it personally.
Corbin Strong, 8 Credits: Strong represents one of the best options below the two obvious choices. The lumpy parcours offers him many opportunities, but we don’t really have a lot to go on.
Pavel Bittner, 8 Credits: Team DSM have been preparing this youngster for his chance and now it’s here. Two stage wins in the recent Vuelta a Burgos are a good sign, but can he bring it to the big stage?

Right, as far as I’m concerned, the top two hoover up the points and I see no other eventuality. The two 8s might do okay if you really want to save, but the 6s just won’t score anywhere near the points of the others. You might find other advice elsewhere and there are a couple of 6s that might be good, but for me, it’s just throwing points away. Arne Marit, Riley Sheehan, and Mathias Vacek are possibly the best three if you really want to save. For me though, it’s Van Aert or Groves.

Unclassed

This category is a little more sparse this time around with such a thin sprinter pool and a few other good riders creeping into the all rounder and climber categories, but there are still a gems here and there. Jhonatan Narváez is the only rider in at 10 credits after his 1120 point Giro earlier in the year. I predict similar from him in Spain with more stages that suit him. Here are the rest of the hopefuls!

8 Credits

Victor Lafay: Only started racing in July this year, possibly too much of a risk at 8 credits.
Joshua Tarling: The favourite for the two time trials, good for 500 points or so. How many more can he get? It is his grand tour debut.
Patrick Konrad: Some encouraging results this year, but his team is stacked with other stage hunters. Will he get much freedom?
Oier Lazkano: Didn’t do that well last year, but he went in loads of breaks at this year’s Tour.
Pelayo Sánchez: Stage winner at the Giro on his way to 535 points.
Mauri Vansevenant: He’ll be helping Landa in all likelihood.
Mauro Schmid: Hasn’t ridden a grand tour for two years and is possibly due a good result.

6 credits

Quinten Hermans: 476 points in the Giro, but will be fighting for points with Groves.
Torstein Træen: Won a stage in the Tour de Suisse this year, but his points potential is limited in a grand tour.
Bruno Armirail: Will score in the two time trials and he may get freedom for more.
Clément Berthet: Has been climbing fairly well this year and should get involved in the breaks.
Pablo Castrillo: Young Spaniard on some good form.
Stefan Küng: Never really scores well at grand tours, but you never know.
Quentin Pacher: A lot of stages suit him and FDJ desperately need a grand tour stage win.
Rémy Rochas: Another like Pacher who’ll be given freedom.
Brandon Smith Rivera: His form has been okay recently, but does Narváez hoover up all his points?
Lorenzo Rota: No form so to speak, but still a good rider.
Victor Campenaerts: Stage win at the Tour makes him one of the more proven riders in this list.
Andreas Kron: 1007 points last year, he does seem to save his best for this race.
Nico Denz: Could score a few points in this weakened sprint field.
William Junior Lecerf: New young Belgian climber who’ll be supporting Landa.
Filippo Baroncini: Young UAE rider will be riding for the team, but does he get his own chances?

4 credits

Urko Berrade: Has the best current form of the 4s, but hard to see where he scores.
Mathis Le Berre: Break merchant, but again, points will be hard to come by.
That’s honestly all I can think of for this price. Especially in the Vuelta, 4 credit riders tend to just spring out of the blue. There are also a lot of grand tour debutants for this price. If you have any tips, feel free to share in the comments or on Twitter.

So there you go boys and girls! This is a super open race and I’m going to have some good fun picking a team. Let’s do a pre-race stream tomorrow night, Friday the 16th at 8pm UK time, here is the link again. https://www.twitch.tv/andytheciderman
We’re getting closer to that overall win, I can feel it. Here is the league code once again: 914475121. So have fun everyone, and enjoy the final grand tour of 2024!