Velogames Preview – Italy 2024

This season is absolutely racing by. The Spring Classics are done, over half of the world tour stage races are behind us as well. We now enter grand tour season and we start with an almost foregone conclusion edition of the Giro d’Italia. Tadej Pogačar is currently at 2/9 (1.22) to win this years race, which I think you’ll agree, are obscene odds before the start of 21 days of racing. The real racing is behind the young and imperious Slovenian. Who competes for the podium? Who triumphs in one of the most incredible sprint fields for any grand tour in recent memory? Who will rise up and write their name in history? For me, this race represents a real opportunity for riders to show what they’re made of. Whether it be with a swansong in the twilight of their careers or a burst onto the world stage to announce your arrival in the sport. So even with a clear and obvious favourite on the start list and seemingly no way he can lose, there are still stories to be written. Let’s get down to business then! And work through what this race is all about.

The Route

At first glance, I found the parcours for this year’s race to be slightly underwhelming, but a second and more detailed inspection of the stages shows some real potential. Albeit with at least two stages that make me weep slightly at night. The race explodes into life with a punchy medium mountain stage followed immediately by the first summit finish of the race. A baptism of fire for anyone trying to enjoy their first taste of grand tour racing. After this, the race settles down with 7 flat stages, 3 more medium mountain stages; 2 in the high mountains, 5 more summit finishes and 2 time trials of the individual variety. There’s bags of potential for the breakaway and at least 7 sprints for the fast men to get stuck into, depending how those stages are raced. The two time trials total almost 72km and offer some true headaches for those general classification (GC)/pink jersey hopefuls who aren’t fans of that sort of thing. Let’s highlight the key stages, and the ones you won’t want to miss.

Stage 1: Of course this one is unmissable. Similar to stage one of the Tour de France last year, with several categorised climbs and a steep ramp 3km before the finish line that provides a late launchpad.

Stage 2 The first summit finish of the race. Does the pink jersey wearer allow this one to go to the break? The final climb is 11.8km long at 6.2% average gradient.
Stage 3: Is this the first chance for the fast men of the bunch? There is a small rise of 5% 3km before the finish line that might string things out.
Stage 6: Strade Bianche mini, the gravel stage. The last time a stage like this appeared in 2021 it put paid to Remco Evenepoel’s GC chances. Will this stage be as decisive?

Stage 7: The first of two individual time trials. This one is flat for 34km before a 1.3km climb at 11.8% sorts the men from the boys.
Stage 8: Another long mountain stage for the opening week. This one includes nearly 4000m of vertical ascent and finishes with a 14.6km climb at 7%.
Stage 10: The second week kicks off with yet another summit finish.
Stage 14: The last of the two time trials. This one is a whole lot flatter than the first.
Stage 15: Week two ends with a simply monstrous stage. There are three category one climbs including the mighty Mortirolo and totalling 5400m of climbing.

Stage 16: This is one of the stages giving me sleepless nights. It includes the Stelvio Pass, but at the beginning of the stage with nearly 90km of flat following it, pain.
Stage 17: Another huge up and down day to punctuate a characteristically hard 3rd week.

Stage 19: It’s another summit finish, but one that isn’t quite as hard as it could be for this stage of the race.
Stage 20: The last true road stage going twice over the massive Monte Grappa.

Velogames Category Guide

Onto Velogames rider selection and it’s business as usual with the category system. The caveat this time, is the one out-and-out favourite has resulted in the most expensive rider since I’ve been playing the game. Tadej Pogačar is priced at 32 credits in the all rounder category, reflecting what everyone expects him to do in this race. He has raced for 10 days this season winning on 6 of those days and including one overall title and Liège-Bastogne-Liège two weeks ago. After him, there’s only one rider priced over 16 and many potential candidates who have been there or thereabouts in grand tours, but never quite seized the day. Let’s take the usual deep dive into the riders with my own opinion sprinkled on top.

All Rounders

Geraint Thomas, 22 Credits: Widely accepted as the 2nd favourite after nearly winning last year. His prep has once again been unimpressive, but we all know that means nothing where G is concerned. He’s fully up for this and Ineos intend to race aggressively to put UAE on the back foot. His teammate Thymen Arensman (12 credits) offers an excellent second fiddle for the team and they’ll both like the time trials.
Romain Bardet, 16 Credits: Rarely this expensive and hasn’t scored huge points since the 2017 Tour de France. 5th at the recent Tour of the Alps and 2nd in Liège-Bastogne-Liège show that his form’s in the right place.
Antonio Tiberi, 14 Credits: It pains me to write about him because of his past, but he does represent an exciting option as long as you don’t mind ignoring morals for your Velogames enjoyment. I just can’t bring myself to cheer for him so he won’t be in my team. That being said, he’s leading Team Bahrain Victorious at a grand tour for the first time and recently finished 3rd at the Tour of the Alps with a top 10 finish in every stage. Damiano Caruso is also 14 credits and is the team’s road captain and more than capable of a high GC finish in his own right. If Tiberi isn’t quite ready, then Caruso looks good for at least a top 5.
Eddie Dunbar, 10 Credits: The Irishman is hoping to kick on after 7th place in last year’s Giro, but his form doesn’t inspire confidence. It wasn’t superb last year either, but then he was a 6 credit unclassed. Can he really hang with the big dogs here?

The rest of the all rounders offer somewhat of a gamble. None are true GC contenders. Instead, they offer an interesting assortment of stage hunting potential or team support. If you’re really looking for a bargain choice here, then I’d be tempted to go with Mauri Vansevenant. The Belgian is now 24 years old recently finished 6th at Liège-Bastogne-Liège and 4th at the Amstel Gold Race, so he’s no slouch.

Climbers

Ben O’Connor, 16 Credits: This is the most expensive Ben has been in the game too, but he is a genuine podium contender. He’s on imperious form this year with two 2nds and a 5th in stage race general classifications and two other wins along the way. Can he finally show us how good he really is and back up his 4th place at the Tour in 2021.
Daniel Martínez, 12 Credits: 2022 was a huge year for the Colombian, but he’s been really quiet since then. He’s one rider looking for some redemption, but he has a teammate at 8 credits who’s on some great form. Florian Lipowitz was relatively unknown before the Tour de Romandie, but a 4th and 2nd on stages and 3rd overall has certainly got people talking.
Cian Uijtdebroecks, 12 Credits: A second GT for the 21 year old after a decent showing at the 2023 Vuelta. He has the lead, but the team insist this is a learning experience and the main focus is stage wins.
Nairo Quintana, 10 Credits: The only 10 credit climber and a return to grand tour racing for the 34 year old Colombian. I wouldn’t expect too much from him, he’s here primarily as support, but may go for his own win later on in the race. His teammate Einer Rubio at 8 credits was 11th last year scoring 949 points. So Movistar might be favouring the youngster.

I’m going to do a rapid fire list for the rest of the climbers because there are so many.

8 credits

Michael Woods: Hoping to complete the trifecta after stage wins at the Tour and the Vuelta.
Julian Alaphilippe: Here’s to Julian recapturing his bonkers attacking form.
Filippo Zana: 578 points last year, can he better it?
Michael Storer: Will be attacking for Tudor in the mountains.
Rafał Majka: Teammate to the race favourite and his last man standing on the climbs.
Domenico Pozzovivo: Leading Bardiani at 41 years old.

6 credits

Esteban Chaves: Hoping to win a stage, but possibly won’t go bonkers.
Juan Pedro López: Leading Trek and going for the overall, could be a bargain.
Giulio Pellizzari: A 20 year old wildcard for Bardiani, an enticing prospect.

Sprinters

There are also a huge number of sprinters here and I’ll highlight who I think are the most important to look for. Always happy to discuss the others in the comments or on Twitter. I may have mentioned them on stream last night too, so check out the VOD if you have some spare time.

Tim Merlier, 14 Credits: Has the most wins of the sprinters this year, but his maximum points at a grand tour is yet to break 600. If he stay in to the end then he’ll be a good pick. I just don’t see it happening.
Olav Kooij, 14 Credits: A grand tour debut for the young Dutchman and the team are right behind him. Kooij’s plus side is his ability to survive over rough terrain and he has 4 wins this year.
Jonathan Milan, 12 Credits: Last year’s points jersey winner and with 3 wins this year he’s definitely a favourite to retain it. Like Visma, his team is bringing a full train for his leadout.
Fabio Jakobsen, 12 Credits: Only won once this year and doesn’t like hills much.
Kaden Groves, 10 Credits: Not in brilliant form so far this season, but was brilliant at the Vuelta last year.
Biniam Girmay, 10 Credits: Was brilliant on debut 2 years ago and would have scored more points if it weren’t for the champagne cork. He’s yet to really recapture the form he had in 2022, but this would be a great opportunity to do so.
Laurence Pithie, 8 Credits: Another grand tour debutant, but has taken the world by storm this year with impressive performances in Australia and in Paris-Nice. The team is built around him and I’m looking forward to seeing what gets up to!
Alberto Dainese, 8 Credits: Sprinting for Tudor and always picks up a stage win. His competition is somewhat harder this time around methinks.
Tobias Lund Andresen, 6 Credits: Helping to leadout Fabio Jakobsen, but bested his teammate 3 times in the recent Tour of Turkey. I’m not saying that’s guaranteed to happen again, but if you fancy a bargain, then here’s your man.

As mentioned before, there are many others to choose from and cases can be made for selecting most of them. The list above is who I will be sticking to, whether that’s with one or two of the expensive blokes or a combo of expensive and cheap. The possibilities are, well, not quite endless, but definitely numerous!

Unclassed

As always with the unclassed, I’ll list who I think are the best bets and as you know, I never miss out on a big scorer, no sir. Anyway, the usual rules apply to the 8 crediters, they’re never usually all that worth it, but there might be one exception to that rule.

8 Credits

Filippo Ganna: Favourite for one time trial and should top 5 the other. If Thomas or Arensman have a good race, and if he fancies another stage or two, then he’ll be good value.
Andrea Bagioli: Should, in theory, be good, but he’s not here with a completely free role and his highest score before was 706 at the 2021 Vuelta.
Christophe Laporte: Here to leadout Kooij so his own opportunities might be limited.

6 Credits

Quinten Hermans: With the rest of Alpecin on leadout duties, maybe Hermans has more free reign for the hillier terrain.
Ewen Costiou: Young Frenchman who’s been impressive in the classics this year.
David Dekker: Sprinting for Arkéa.
Lorenzo Fortunato: Has won a stage before.
Christian Scaroni: Loves a breakaway, can he get it right this year?
Simone Velasco: One of Astana’s best hopes for a stage win.
Andrea Pasqualon: Hasn’t been talked about much, but he often gets involved in the sprints later on in a grand tour.
Stanisław Aniołkowski: Sprinting for Cofidis and they desperately need a win this year.
Aurélien Paret-Peintre: Scored 822 points last year, but may have more responsibilities helping Ben O’Connor this year.
Valentin Paret-Peintre: Like his brother, may have to look after Ben, but they’re both in great form this year. They’ll hopefully have their own chances too.
Simon Carr: With EF stage hunting, Carr will get his chance. Two wins so far this year.
Jhonatan Narváez: Helping the team, but will also go for a breakaway every now and then.
Magnus Sheffield: Here to learn on grand tour debut, and will be looking at the time trials.
Nick Schultz: One of the only men to beat Pogačar in a stage this year.
Gijs Leemreize: Scored 799 points at his only other appearance at the Giro.
Kevin Vermaerke: Has been having an impressive year, but can he perform in a grand tour?
Davide Piganzoli: Team Polti Kometa’s new homegrown talent looking for a stage.
Jan Tratnik: Can score when he wants to, but how many chances will he have.
Matteo Trentin: A sprinter not so long ago. Still an excellent rider.
Mikkel Bjerg: One of Pogačar’s teammates with the most scoring potentials from breaks or from the time trials.
Andrea Piccolo: Not on any kind of form, but sounds super keen and wants a stage.
Davide Bais: Wants to fight for the KOM jersey like he did last year.

4 credits

Marco Frigo: 488 points last year and someone has to fill Derek Gee’s shoes!
Alex Baudin: Already raced one Giro and is making steady progress.
Mattia Bais: Will be in as many breakaways as possible.
Vegard Stake Laengen and Doman Novak: The only other 4s I can recommend are the UAE boys for assists. They’ll likely be a few others who shine brightly, but they’re not obvious whoever they are! Let me know who you spot, or if he’s your little secret then good luck to him.

So there you have it. My two cents on the upcoming Giro d’Italia. Hope there are some useful tips in the for you. As always, I’m not responsibly for any team selection decisions that go awry. The league code is 914475121 for all who’ve yet to join. The goal remains trying to have a league member win the whole thing. Oh, and if you want to listen to me babble on about the riders in depth, then my VOD from Tuesday’s stream is still up for a while. You can find that here: https://www.twitch.tv/andytheciderman. Good luck all, and enjoy the race!