Velogames Preview – Italy 2023

It’s that time of year again boys and girls! Who’s ready for another season of grand tour fantasy cycling? Spending several days creating 37 drafts only for your star rider to crash out on stage one? Ah good times, but seriously, the way things have been shaping up, we’re in for a trio of brilliant races starting here with the Giro d’Italia. This season opener is already asking a lot of questions, primarily based around the fight for the maglia rosa (pink jersey). Will it be the 23 year old world champion wonderkid, or the 33 year old triple Vuelta a Espana winner in need of a comeback? I can’t wait for the racing to get underway, but until then, we can spend the next two days debating who’s who and what’s what. Let’s get right into it.

The Route

A very well rounded race awaits us with six flat stages, five lumpy stages, two in the high mountains, five summit finishes, and three individual time trials. In a similar result to last year, I think we’ll see up to seven sprints with five or six being likely, and a good nine or ten stages going to the breakaway. The time trials aren’t your average flat simple races against the clock. The first one ends with a small climb, the time trial in the middle of the race is a long one at 35km, and the last one on stage 20…well we’ll get to that. Here are the stages to look out for if you want to keep some time free from work so you catch the best of the action.

Stage 1: The race kicks off with a 19.6km individual time trial ending with a short 5% climb that should keep things interesting.
Stage 2: The first sprint stage for the fast men to prove themselves.
Stage 4: The first climb to a finish of the race, but the last 3km are after the summit.
Stage 8: The opener of the first week finale with a fun looking final 50km over three short, but steep climbs.
Stage 9: The 2nd of the three time trials and it’s one for the specialists.
Stage 13: The stage with the Cima Coppi, the highest point of the race, and the first monster day of climbing with over 5000m of vertical ascent.

Stage 16: The beginning of the final week and another 5000m of climbing to kick things off.
Stage 18: The start of the finale, a triple header of mountain delights, this stage is the easiest of the three.
Stage 19: The stage with the most climbing overall at just shy of 5500m. Here is the final climb of a road stage in the race.

Stage 20: The final time trial and chance to win the race for anyone close enough. It’s not your normal time trial either with a 7.3km 12.1% climb to decide the 2023 Giro d’Italia.

Velogames Category Guide

On paper, this is a duel between Remco Evenepoel and Primož Roglič, but anything can happen in a three week race. The pricing is very clever this time around. Make the other contenders a little too expensive and everyone will pick the favourites and ignore the others, leave them reasonably priced and suddenly the temptation to leave out one of the big guys becomes a real possibility. As always, here is a full breakdown of all the main players and best looking picks.

All Rounders

Remco Evenepoel, 26 Credits: The world champion and current Vuelta winner, back for his 2nd attempt at La Corsa Rosa. He’s in scintillating form with victory at Liège-Bastogne-Liège, 2nd at Volta Catalunya, and victory at the UAE Tour.
Primož Roglič, 24 Credits: The 2nd favourite attempting to re-find his best form after his crash at the Vuelta and subsequent shoulder surgery that ended his season. He’s not doing a bad job of it so far with overall wins in Tirreno-Adriatico and Volta Catalunya, where he beat Remco by 6 seconds.
Geraint Thomas, 18 Credits: Nothing to really write home about this year, results wise, but he’s a real grand tour racer. He might just be a tad over-priced compared to the favourites and when looking at the other riders Team INEOS is bringing.
João Almeida, 16 Credits: Hoping for more luck this year after falling ill last year when in 4th place overall. His very encouraging results so far this year include podiums at Volta Catalunya and Tirreno-Adriatico.
Aleksandr Vlasov, 14 Credits: He’s had a fairly quiet 2023, but he’s a good bet for a top 5 overall. He’s just a hard rider to read, he could be worth 1500 points, or 500. He does tend to consistently hit around 1000 points when he finishes a grand tour.
Thymen Arensman, 12 Credits: One of the cheaper main players for INEOS along with Pavel Sivakov who is also 12 credits. Arensman is a cracking 3rd week rider who is still finding his feet at his new team. Maybe he can build form throughout the race.

The cheaper all rounders see Brandon McNulty on 10 credits and he’ll be supporting Almeida. Then there’s a quintet of riders on 8 credits. Rigoberto Urán is supposedly here for EF, but they’re yet to announce their team. Bob Jungels comes to support the Bora team, and Diego Ulissi is here to support Almeida just like McNulty. The other two riders on this list have their own opportunities and they are Bauke Mollema and Warren Barguil. I don’t have anything particular to say about those two, but they will presumably be trying to win a stage or two and won’t be in the shake up for the overall.

Climbers

There’s a lot of potential for points from this climbers category, but it’s a veritable minefield trying to discern the better scorers from the red herrings. What we can say is, there’s only one rider who’s even remotely expensive meaning there are bargains to be had. If you’re going for a double favourites strategy, then picking your way through here to find the right riders, may just make your race.

Tao Geoghegan Hart, 16 Credits: The only expensive rider here and the INEOS rider in the best form. Who’s to say if he can repeat his 2020 heroics, but victory at the recent Tour of the Alps and a podium at Tirreno-Adriatico point to some great form. Let’s hope he can carry it into the Giro.
Jack Haig, 12 Credits: Didn’t have the best of luck last year after a great Vuelta in 2021. He has recently started to capture some of that form back with a podium at the Tour of the Alps. He does represent a bit of a gamble though.
Jay Vine, 12 Credits: Two stage wins at the Vuelta last year led to a points haul of 895, and he did win the Tour Down Under at the start of the year. He hasn’t raced since leaving the UAE Tour early so his form is unknown and Almeida is his team leader.
Damiano Caruso, 10 Credits: He will be a key man for Haig in the mountains and 3rd place at the Tour de Romandie show promising form for the 35 year old. Will he get his own chances or is he chained working for the team. My guess is on the latter.
Lennard Kämna, 10 Credits: A key man for Bora and a proven grand tour racer with stage wins in both the Tour and the Giro. He’s shown great form already this year in open stages and time trials and I’d expect that to continue here.
Hugh Carthy, 10 Credits: He’s flying a little under the radar and maybe that’s the way he likes it. 2nd in the recent Tour of the Alps show he’s still got it, but he hasn’t had a brilliant grand tour since the 2020 Vuelta. Can he turn things around at the Giro? Time will tell.
Thibaut Pinot, 10 Credits: Pinot is a real fan favourite and he’s coming into this race with no firm objectives, but he might give the GC a go. I think everyone would love to see him do well and he represents the best sentimental option for me.

Now we come to the cheaper options and first up is the Bahrain younster Santiago Buitrago, available for 8 credits. He is in cracking form after 3rd place at Liège-Bastogne-Liège and did win a stage here last year. Also for 8 credits are Lorenzo Fortunato, Domenico Pozzovivo, Koen Bouwman, Sepp Kuss and Jan Hirt. All compelling options, but I’m not convinced they’re worth big points. Fortunato might be trying to correct some mistake from last year’s race where he believes he was too passive. If he rides an attacking race then he could be worth a look. The best options for 6 credits that I can see are Patrick Konrad, Jefferson Alexander Cepeda, Einer Augusto Rubio and Ilan Van Wilder. Last year, three 6 credit climbers scored over 1000 points. Who of these do you fancy? My money’s on Konrad.

Sprinters

The sprinters category at the Giro is always a hard one to call. You have to pick through the ones who will be genuinely interested in the points jersey and try and ignore those who will leave early to prepare to the Tour. I actually don’t think we have too many of the latter here this time around, so maybe this year might be slightly easier.

Mads Pedersen, 14 Credits: Deservedly the most expensive here after a monstrous 2022 campaign that was topped off by a 2090 point haul in the Vuelta. He’s started this year just as well and I have no doubts he’ll finish this race and with a couple of stage wins to his name.
Fernando Gaviria, 10 Credits: Enjoying life at his new team and with some encouraging results so far. I believe Gaviria to be one of the fastest guys here and he’s more than capable of finishing the race. It all depends how many more points you think Pedersen might score.
Michael Matthews, 10 Credits: Often a safe pair of legs for any grand tour. He can finish this race easily and win a stage or two. My qualms with him are centred around whether he’s going to the Tour as well, because he’s never finished the Giro before in three attempts.
Pascal Ackermann, 10 Credits: Another former points jersey winner lines up here, but I think Gaviria has the better support in the flat stages and UAE never seem to do that well in sprints. I think Gaviria is the better bet, but they may end up scoring a similar number of points in the end.
Kaden Groves, 8 Credits: Groves easily has the best sprint train out of all the sprinters here and he’ll take confidence from winning a stage at the Vuelta last year and finishing the race. Can he take another step up at the Giro.
Mark Cavendish, 8 Credits: Cavendish is having a few teething problems with the sprint train at his new team, it’s just not quite there. This is probably just glorified training for him and his team before the Tour, which is his main target.
Jonathan Milan, 8 Credits: Bahrain’s designated sprinter and at 22 years old, he’s got bags of potential. He hasn’t been firing on all cylinders this year and it is his grand tour debut.
Alberto Dainese, 8 Credits: No results to really write home about this year, but he will be motivated to replicate his stage win from last year.
Vincenzo Albanese, 6 Credits: Easily the best budget sprinter pick for this race. He’s on some good form and will be incredibly motivated to win a stage and finish the race. If you really want to save money or only have 6 credits for a wildcard spot, then he’s your man.

All the riders mentioned above should be the ones to score the bulk of the sprinter points. Not that the rest of them aren’t great riders, but if any of them score much more than 600 points, I’ll be surprised. So you sprinter pick should probably go to one of the ones I’ve written about, and I’d go with a one sprinter strategy, which is usually the way to go at the Giro.

Unclassed

In line with recent trends, there’s a top dog in this category in Filippo Ganna at 10 credits. The favourite in the time trials and having a cracking year. If you can afford him, then he’s a safe option, but if you’re trying to find the best possible team, then he needs to be scoring around 1000 points to be good value. That means the time trials aren’t enough, he’ll need to score from open stages as well. Here are the rest of the unclassed riders I’m considering for my team.

8 Credits
Magnus Cort: Always worth a good few points at a grand tour.
Stefan Küng: Never scores quite as many points as you think he will.
Rohan Dennis: Late call up for Jumbo and also might not score as well as you’d think.
Thomas Gloag: Another Jumbo late call up, but good support in the mountains.

6 Credits
Samuele Battistella: 635 points at the Vuelta was very encouraging.
Alberto Bettiol: (EF haven’t announced at time of writing) It’s Bettiol.
Lorenzo Rota: Almost won a stage last year, he will be very determined.
Eddie Dunbar: Attempting GC for Jayco.
Jake Stewart: Possibly sprinting for Groupama.
Ben Healy: Had an insane hilly classics campaign, is he tired though?
Stefano Oldani: A stage win last year and he’s back for more.
Josef Černý: In good time trial form and assists for Remco.
Andreas Leknessund: Spearheading DSM’s young team.
Aurélien Paret-Peintre: Attempting GC for AG2R.
Davide Gabburo: Last year’s best 4 credit rider, promoted.
Mattia Cattaneo: In a bit of a lull career wise, could be key for Remco.
Filippo Zana: Italian national champion and should have some freedom.

4 Credits
Pieter Serry: Easy assist points for Remco, but not an exciting pick.
Laurenz Rex: A top 10 in Paris-Roubaix shows he’s a tenacious rider.
Will Barta: Recent TT success.
Valentin Paret-Peintre: Youngster supporting his brother in the mountains.
Nico Denz: Might score in the TTs, then Bora assists.
Mattia Bais: Breakaways, all day every day.
Samuele Zoccarato: Same as Bais.
Simone Petilli: Mountain breakaways for Intermarché.

So there you have it folks! Finished just in time for me to go to work. Hope this gives you plenty of insight over the next few days. I’m very much looking forward to this one and can’t wait for the riders to hit the road. Don’t forget to sign up for the mini-league with code 986859730, as always, the goal is for someone in the league to win the whole thing. Happy picking and I’ll see on the battlefield!