Velogames Preview – Italy 2021

It seems strange to be previewing a normal grand tour after the weirdness we all went through last year, but thankfully we’ve had a fairly uninterrupted lead-up to this race and we can make predictions that actually make sense. More and more completed rosters are trickling in and the picture of who will be going for the general classification is building nicely. Personally, I’m trying not to get trapped thinking there are any out-and-out favourites here after what happened last year and instead I’m planning for a surprise or two! Hopefully this guide will give you an idea or two, especially if you’ve missed the build-up races, so here we go.

The Route

There is potential here for several twists and turns on the 21 stages from Turin to Milan, but the opening week follows a fairly similar pattern to what we saw in 2020. A short opening individual time trial, a couple of testing uphill finishes, and a few opportunities for the sprinters characterise the first 10 stages. The fun really begins early on in the second week with a very ‘Strade Bianche-esque’ day on stage 11, which follows a lot of the routes south of Siena used in the one-day classic and there is always exciting action there. Another stage defining the second week is stage 14 with an ascent of Monte Zoncolan. This time the riders climb from the east in a reverse of what we saw in 2018 when Chris Froome took the win. From this side, the lower slopes are slightly easier with a very steep final 3km. The final week is as bonkers as you’d expect with several incredible stages through the alps with no less than three summit finishes. For a full breakdown of the race, check out the brilliant previews on The Inner Ring. Here are the stages you need to be sure not to miss.

Stage 4 – 11th: The first real climbing test packed into the 2nd half of today. A fun category 2 climb leads to the finish.
Stage 9 – 16th: Big day of climbing with a fun gravel uphill finish.
Stage 11 – 19th: Strade Bianche, Giro style.
Stage 14 – 22nd: Monte Zoncolan summit finish.
Stage 16 – 24th: Big day in the Dolomites with the Passo Pordoi this year’s Cima Coppi.
Stage 20 – 29th: I could highlight all of the last week’s stages, but the mountains finish here.
Stage 21 – 30th: 30km flat time trial to decide the race.

Velogames Category Guide

So this is what you’re all here for, who are the favourites? What form are the sprinters in? Where are the fantasy points coming from? Here is my take on how to play this. Although I have to say, I’ve been chopping and changing my own team since the game went live and I don’t think I’ll ever be truly satisfied. It’s a tough one for sure so let’s get into it.

All Rounders

Egan Bernal – 24 Credits: The most expensive rider here and a big gamble. Ineos confirmed on Tuesday that Bernal will be co-leader with Sivakov for their push for pink, but the limelight being shined elsewhere is probably good for Bernal. 4th overall in Tirreno-Adriatico with good performances before that too. If his back holds out then he’s due a good race.
Remco Evenepoel – 18 Credits: The young Belgian prodigy makes his grand tour debut. He was due to start last year’s race before the horror crash at Il Lombardia ended his season. He hasn’t raced since then and his team say they’re going to take it day by day. So big question marks and a lot of intrigue make for an interesting choice.
João Almeida – 16 Credits: Deceuninck – Quick Step’s other leader and one of the stand out riders from last year. He comes here in good form, his time trial is still good, and he’ll be fighting for stages. He could be made of points.
Pello Bilbao – 12 Credits: Bahrain haven’t confirmed yet either, but the talk is Bilbao will be sharing leadership with Landa. He has great form and had the race of his life at last year’s Giro. Could be a cheap alternative if you’re feeling it.
Vincenzo Nibali – 12 Credits: Confirmed as part of Trek – Segafredo’s roster. Recovering from a broken wrist picked up in a training incident three weeks ago.
Marc Soler – 10 Credits: Just had a great race at the Tour de Romandie and will be Movistar’s sole leader for the Giro.
Felix Großschartner – 8 Credits: Chosen him over Buchmann because there are more questions over the latter’s form, whereas Großschartner is coming off the back of a 1st and a 2nd on stages in the Tour of the Alps and a great Vuelta last year.

Elsewhere here are Pavel Sivakov 14, who might be an alternative for Ineos; Tobias Foss 8, as a back up for Jumbo’s GC aspirations; and Bauke Mollema 10, and Gorka Izagirre 8, who are both either supporting another leader or going for stages.

Climbers

Simon Yates – 22 Credits: Reassuringly expensive after previous exploits here and victory in the Tour of the Alps. If he avoids ill fortune then he’ll be fighting for the win for sure.
Alexandr Vlasov – 16 Credits: Astana’s leader for the GC. 2nd in Paris-Nice and 3rd in the Tour of the Alps show he’s on form. Managed to finish last year’s Vuelta with a few good stage results after illness ruined his Giro.
Mikel Landa – 14 Credits: I really question what he can do here. A lot are predicting a good race from him and his form is decent without being spectacular. I’d just argue Bilbao is in better form, but it’s an interesting discussion either way. Their roster announcement confirmed Landa will be the protected leader and he has superb support in Bilbao. If he rides to his best then he may podium, or possibly win the whole thing if anything happens to Bernal or Yates.
Hugh Carthy – 14 Credits: More expensive here after his brilliant Vuelta outing last year. Pick Carthy here at 14 if you’re a fan of his, which I am. I’d love him to do well here.
Jai Hindley – 12 Credits: Also more expensive after his dream-team performance here last year. Crashed in the Tour of the Alps with some patchy form before that. His teammate, Romain Bardet – 10 Credits, might be the better pick for a team going all in for the pink jersey.
Dan Martin – 10 Credits: Israel’s leader and a grand tour racer through and through.
George Bennett – 10 Credits: His chance at grand tour leadership.

This is the problem with the climbers category like always, a lot of choice and bargains everywhere, and it’s often the bargains that can be the shrewdest picks. Fausto Masnada here are 10 credits is an interesting prospect, but he’ll be supporting Evenepoel and Almeida. Might still be worth a few points though. Daniel Felipe Martinez is also interesting at 12 credits depending on the Ineos strategy. Amongst the bargains here are Vanhoucke and Ciccone at a tempting 8 credits, and Mäder and Brambilla could be the best 6 credit riders. It’s all a judgement call though with almost too much choice here. I forgot to mention Cepeda originally, he is also 6 credits and just came 4th at the Tour of the Alps. An interesting young prospect if you like an outside gamble.

Sprinters

Peter Sagan – 16 Credits: A lot of people saying there are only 5 sprints here, but I can see 6 with potentially more for a rider like Sagan. Looks like he’s back to his best recently with two wins this year and 4th in Milano-Sanremo.
Caleb Ewan – 14 Credits: Only the one win this year so far, but he looked phenomenal at Milano-Sanremo up the final climb and he was so close to taking the win.
Tim Merlier – 12 Credits: Alpecin-Fenix’s first outing in a grand tour and Merlier will be their main line of attack to grab a stage. Three wins in one-day races this year.
Giacomo Nizzolo – 12 Credits: One win this year and some great form in the classics. He’ll be desperate to win here.

I think those four riders are the best choices here. At 10 credits we have Viviani, Gaviria, and Groenewegen who is returning to racing for the first time since his suspension. These are all good outside bets, but I think the smart play would to go for one of the top four or save money for a bargain. And speaking of bargains, if Groenewegen isn’t quite ready to sprint then that mantle will fall to David Dekker for Jumbo. Max Kanter could be a decent bet at 6 credits too.

Unclassed

A whole load of good looking prospects here especially for 6 credits. I obviously can’t mention them all, but here are some hints at who might go well. All three of the 8 credit riders look good so I won’t talk about them, but they’re all worth considering.

6 Credits
Clément Champoussin: AG2R are testing out a young team here and this guy just might do okay.
Luis Leon Sánchez: Stage hunting for Astana when he’s not helping Vlasov.
Enrico Battaglin: Stage hunting for Bardiani.
Matteo Fabbro: 5th in Tirreno-Adriatico and looks interesting.
Gianni Moscon: I don’t like recommending this guy for obvious reasons, but if that doesn’t bother you then he might go stage hunting for Ineos.
Patrick Bevin: Was showing great form in Romandie before withdrawing due to illness.
Kobe Goossens: Just won the king of the mountains in Romandie. His teammate, a bloke called Thomas de Gendt is also here.
Matteo Jorgenson: If Soler isn’t your kind of guy then Jorgenson might be the smart Movistar play. 8th in Paris-Nice.
Matteo Moschetti: Sprinter for Trek.

4 Credits
Quinten Hermans: Decent form in the classics.
Einer Augusto Rubio: Bit of a wildcard for Movistar and De Gendt’s mortal enemy.

That’s it for the 4 credits riders, I don’t see a lot of options there. The 6 credit riders are where the choices should lie and balancing that with the picks from the climbers and all rounders will be tricky.

I am very excited for this race and think we’re in for a cracker. I’m expecting the unexpected and we’re in for three weeks of really close racing. It’s going to be one hell of a rollercoaster. The code to join the league to see how you stack up against other readers is here 985978721. So best of luck and happy picking!