Paris-Nice – Velogames Preview

The stage race season starts now! The warm up is behind us and the real racing starts here and it’s a first showdown between Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard. Both are making their Paris-Nice debuts in a break from their usual UAE Tour – Tirreno-Adriatico – Itzulia race schedules. This race is not just about the two main Tour de France favourites and there are always twists and turns in this early season race. So let’s dissect the route and dive in to the riders for the Velogames stage race championship opener.

The Route

It’s a very typical Paris-Nice route with one exception. Stage three is not the usual individual time trial, but a team time trial, and a team time trial with a twist. Instead of taking a team’s time on the 4th or 5th rider to cross the line, a team’s time will now be taken on the very 1st rider over the finish line. This opens up a whole new dynamic to the stage and riders can be burned earlier to set up a giant lead out for a team’s fastest rider. I’m really looking forward to seeing how this will play out.

The rest of the stages are the usual mix of lumpy sprint stages, of which there should be three; two summit finishes; one good looking breakaway stage; and the usual showdown in the hills around Nice. This race always offers up compelling viewing with likely crosswinds and all kinds of other twists and turns that make predicting the outcome far from certain.

The Riders

As expected, George has done all he can to force the ultimate decision, can we take both Vingegaard and Pogačar and still have a competitive team? Both have had near flawless starts to the season and the desire to one-up their great rival at their first major stage race of 2023 will be huge. Vingegaard warmed up with a perfect three stages out of three and the overall title at O Gran Camiño in northern Spain, whilst Pogačar crushed the likes of Landa and Mas at the Vuelta a Andalucia with his own three stage wins and the overall title. Nobody expects anything except a 1-2 from this pair and they should be contesting half the stages, so a whole load of fantasy points are coming their way. Vingegaard should have the edge with Jumbo-Visma in the team time trial, which should entice Pogačar to sprint for as many bonus seconds as possible. We’re in for one hell of a showdown.

The issue with taking both of the superstars is the budget will really restrict the rest of your roster. You’ll be left with 46 credits for seven riders, which means an average of 6.5 credits per rider for the rest of your squad. I will say it’s possible, but very risky. It’s a strategy that should earn you solid points, but potentially only from the big two and you’ll be relying on nailing you selections amongst the cheaper riders. Personally, I don’t think I’ll be following this strategy, but the agonising choice is then who to leave out? Who to take if you do leave on out could be a more interesting conundrum.

There are plenty of other general classification (GC) riders to whet the appetite and these include last year’s 3rd place finisher Daniel Felipe Martinez at 18 credits, as well as the runner up from that race Simon Yates also at 18 credits. Both have started the season well with Martinez taking victory at the Volta ao Algarve and Yates with 2nd place at the Tour Down Under. Further down the list at 14 credits we have the French duo of Romain Bardet and David Gaudu. I think both will have a good race, but I’m not sure if that will translate to big points if the guys already mentioned scoop up all the top placings. The more budget GC riders can be found at 10 and 8 credits with the in form Mattias Skjelmose and Neilson Powless at 10 credits and another decent outside bet in Kévin Vauquelin available at 8 credits.

Moving our attention to the sprinters and it’s usually the guys who can handle the hilly stuff who’ll fare best here, and to be honest, most of the fast guys on the start list can handle a few hills. Top of the pile and most expensive amongst them is Tim Merlier at 14 credits who should be expecting at least one stage win from this race, but hovering 2 credits over his competition could count against his inclusion in your teams. 12 credits is where we find Merlier’s main competition in Kaden Groves, Olav Kooij, Arnaud De Lie, Sam Bennett, Michael Matthews and Mads Pedersen. Of these, I’d say Pedersen, De Lie, Kooij and Bennett look like excellent value and have good form so far this year. De Lie is the real deal, but this is his world tour stage race debut and it’ll be fascinating to see how he stacks up against some of the best in the business. Arnaud Démare, Jonathan Milan, and Alexander Kristoff offer up some value at 10 credits, and below these are Fred Wright and Bryan Coquard at 8 credits.

There are plenty of other options higher up in the price bracket, but who are the value guys to be had in the 6 and 4 credit price bands? At 6 credits, we have Andrea Piccolo, Rudy Molard, Omar Fraile, Hugo Page, Jan Tratnik, and Kobe Goossens. There are others, but Page, Fraile, and Piccolo look like excellent bargains. At 4 credits, there really isn’t much to write home about, which is sort of what to expect at 4 credits, but Pavel Bittner looks like a prospect in the sprinting department for DSM. Last year only two 4 credit riders managed over 100 points, and I don’t really see that changing here. This is the main thing counting against the dual Vingegaard/Pogačar strategy for me.

So there you go! Deadline and stage win is tomorrow. Happy picking and best of luck! League code once again is 986859730, see you there!