Velogames Preview – Italy 2022

Hello again everyone! I’ve moved to a new place, my internet has been switched on, and I’m ready to bring you more guides for this year’s Velogames competitions. First up on the menu is the Giro d’Italia and it promises to be a real cracker. A lot of question marks over many competitors and the course has a little bit of everything for riders of all shapes and sizes. So your guess is as good as mine for what we’ll see over the next three weeks, but here’s a bit of insight to get you started!

The Route

Five pure flat stages; six medium stages; three in the high mountains; two individual time trials; and five summit finishes offer a great deal of variety and throw up a lot of potential scenarios. I’m anticipating six proper bunch sprints with scope for three more depending on how the stages are raced. Bags of breakaway possibilities as always and we may equal or even surpass last year’s total of nine victories for the escapees. The individual time trials almost bookend the race with the first coming on stage two and the second providing the final showdown in Verona. Neither are flat, but they’re not exactly long either, so pure climbers will be hoping not to lose the minutes they’re prone to losing in a normal time trial. The summit finishes and mountain stages are spread out throughout the race, but the truly brutal stages backend the race as usual, and the third week is looking particularly tough. So with that being said, here are the stages that offer the most promise for exciting and decisive racing!

Stage 1: Mostly flat, but the stage ends with a 5.5km climb averaging just over 4%. Not too difficult, but a possibility for a punchier sprinter to pull on the Maglia Rosa.
Stage 2: Historic time trial in Budapest city centre, with a small summit finish, 1.3km at 4.7%.
Stage 4: The first summit test comes early with an ascent of Mount Etna from the west.
Stage 7: Just over 4500m of climbing means this stage is a real challenge.
Stage 9: A Blockhaus finish for the 7th time in Giro history and the first since 2017 when Nairo Quintana took home the win. There’s a tricky category 1 climb that precedes this ferocious finale to give the stage extra spice.
Stage 14: The end of week two kicks off with a really fun looking stage perfect for a breakaway or some opportunistic attacks.
Stage 15: And week two ends with three big climbs. Perfect for taking some time back before the final rest day.
Stage 16: The final week is absolutely brutal and the riders will launch into it with the heaviest day of climbing in the entire race at 5250m of elevation gained. In the centre of this stage lies the fearsome Mortirolo, but that’s not even the hardest part of this stage. The category 1 test 7km before the finish line averages around 10% over the last 6km. If anyone has had a rough rest day then this stage is a race killer.
Stage 20: The Cima Coppi, highest point of the race, provides the backdrop for the final road stage of the race. Another ridiculous day of relentless climbing with the last few kilometres staying well above 10%.
Stage 21: 17.4km time trial around Verona with a small category 4 climb thrown in.

Velogames Category Guide

In my mind, there are three main podium favourites with a lot of potential from those hoping to upset them. There’s such a mix of form going into this race, that trying to predict the final general classification will be even more difficult than usual. I can see one or two real bargains and others who are lot more risky. The big question is as always, where are the big points coming from? A more important question perhaps, is where are the reliable points coming from? It all makes for a more exciting race in my opinion and I’ll do my best to take you through all the hopefuls.

All Rounders

Richard Carapaz, 24 Credits: The probable race favourite and backed by a very strong Ineos team. 2nd in Volta Catalunya with a stage win and he’s been training hard since then.
João Almeida, 20 Credits: Looks in good shape to improve on his previous 4th and 6th place finishes. 3rd in Volta Catalunya with a stage win. Quiet, but respectable additional outings earlier in the year.
Tom Dumoulin, 14 Credits: No riders for 18 or 16 credits in the all rounder category so the next entry here is Dumoulin. Absolutely no pressure on the 31 year old Dutchman and his form is a complete unknown. Might be the favourite for the two time trials, but his race will be very much ‘take each day as it comes’. A risky gamble, but a fun risky gamble.
Pello Bilbao, 12 Credits: Based on his Giro performance two years ago and his form this year, I’d be taking Bilbao in a heartbeat. However, he is riding in the service of another and will only have his own opportunities if his leader suffers some misfortune. There is always the possibility that the team announcement is a smokescreen, but again, this is a gamble.
Wilco Kelderman, 12 Credits: Bora are no longer going for just one leader so taking any of them is a risk. He’s had a really unfortunate season so far so the only thing going for him is his grand tour record, which is nicely consistent.
Tobias Foss, 10 Credits: Managed 925 points at the Giro last year thanks to the opening time trial and 9th in the final standings. If Dumoulin doesn’t have it then maybe Foss will.
Alejandro Valverde, 10 Credits: At 42 years old he isn’t getting any younger and this will be his final year as a pro. That being said, he’s arguably had some of the best Spring results out of anyone going so don’t count him out just yet.
Thymen Arensman, 8 Credits: Part of a DSM double act that dominated the recent Tour of the Alps. He has a good time trial and the 22 year old is set for great things.

The rest of the all rounders are either super domestiques or stage hunters. The likes of Porte and Sivakov provide the firepower to back up Carapaz, whilst Costa is looking after Almeida. Vansevenant and Ulissi are good bets for a stage here and there, especially the former, who has more of a free role, but their potential points total is not that high compared to the GC riders.

Climbers

Simon Yates, 22 Credits: The 2nd favourite and a Giro regular. He’s hinting at trying different races next year so this might be his last Giro for a while. His Paris-Nice was excellent, including the time trial, and he tested his legs with two stage wins at the recent Vuelta Asturias.
Mikel Landa, 18 Credits: Here’s one of those riders who’s form is completely unknown. The team say he’s the leader and whilst he had a good Tirreno-Adriatico two months ago, he’s not done much since then.
Miguel Ángel López, 16 Credits: Back on Astana after a dramatic exit from Movistar last year. He’s also had a fairly quiet year, but the amount of climbing should suit him. Honestly, both López and Landa are quite expensive, but have the potential to do well. They’re proving to be quite the head scratchers.
Romain Bardet, 14 Credits: He was nicely consistent at the grand tours last year and is coming in with great form after victory at the Tour of the Alps.
Giulio Ciccone, 12 Credits: He was one of the best climbers last year until his stage 17 crash. Patchy form and a bad grand tour record stand against him, but he could be good, which is the same confusing feeling I’m having about a lot of these riders.
Jai Hindley, 10 Credits: Never really recreated his 2020 Giro form, but might be Bora’s best bet. His Tirreno was fairly decent, but there’s not a lot else to say about him.
Guillaume Martin, 10 Credits: Never really properly cracked a top grand tour GC placement and has more of the same ‘close but no cigar’ form this year.
Lorenzo Fortunato, 8 Credits: A stage win last year and is hoping for a repeat in 2022. Arriving in Italy after 2nd place in the Vuelta Asturias.
Iván Ramiro Sosa, 8 Credits: Supposedly Movistar’s man for the GC, but with no real grand tour pedigree to back that up. He’s still young though and has some decent form. I’m expecting some quiet progress this race, which might not translate to good fantasy points.

The climbing category is it’s usual glorious mess of all kinds of riders and I can’t comment on them all. Will a cheeky 6 credit rider have a ridiculous race? How can you even begin to choose between the favourites here? Honestly, just writing this is giving me a slight headache. Maybe there’s better value elsewhere, or maybe these riders will make up most of the top 10. I just don’t know.

Sprinters

Caleb Ewan, 12 Credits: Lotto Soudal need him to do well here. They’ll probably send him to the Tour as well so don’t expect him to finish the race, but the minimum expectation here is at least two stage wins. Usually isn’t worth it to select a sprinter we know isn’t going to finish.
Arnaud Démare, 10 Credits: The king of grand tour sprints against slightly weaker sprint opposition and there are at least seven top tier sprinters missing from this race. That being said, his form isn’t great and he’s often too hit-or-miss in grand tours to be worth it.
Mark Cavendish, 10 Credits: He’s coming here for the points jersey and his best pal, Michael Mørkøv, is here to provide those world class leadouts. Two stage wins and a one-day race win show some promising form.
Giacomo Nizzolo, 10 Credits: Israel – Premier Tech’s main hope for a stage win. He’ll also be looking to finish the race, but he hasn’t managed that at a grand tour since 2018.
Davide Cimolai, 8 Credits: Cofidis are apparently riding for Consonni in the sprints so that makes Cimolai a bit of a red herring.
Fernando Gaviria, 8 Credits: Good value for a former points jersey winner, but he’s had a few rough years at the grand tours.
Biniam Girmay, 8 Credits: Eritrea’s next big thing arrives at his first grand tour after making history at Gent-Wevelgem in March. So far, he’s been making a name for himself in the classics, and whilst not being a pure sprinter, there are many stages here that could suit him.
Vincenzo Albanese, 6 Credits: Has showed some really promising form this year and he’s only 25. Potentially a great option if you’re feeling risky and need someone cheap.
Phil Bauhaus, 6 Credits: The best value sprinter and the last rider I’ll specifically mention here. It’s been a good year for him so far and if you’re looking for a cheap option to complement more expensive all rounders and climbers, then here’s your man.

Unclassed

As in the Vuelta last year, we have an outlier in this category in Mathieu van der Poel. He’s not a sprinter, he’s not a contender for the overall, but he is an incredible rider and has taken his place in the unclassed at a ripe 12 credits and is possibly the favourite for stage 1. For the rest of this category, I only see a handful of options in each price range, which probably means I haven’t spotted something, but I’ll go through who I think are the shrewd picks here.

8 Credits
Magnus Cort: The all round talent on EF, slightly unknown form.
Mauro Schmid: Has a free role to grab a stage win to add to his win from 2021.
Alessandro Covi: Will be helping Almeida, but is very capable of winning a stage himself.

6 Credits
Nans Peters: Proven grand tour stage winner.
Dries De Bondt: Fun attacking rider who impressed last year.
Jan Tratnik: Bahrain’s time trial specialist.
Simone Consonni: Sprinting for Cofidis making him excellent value.
Attila Valter: FDJ’s climber and Maglia Rosa wearer last year.
Jhonatan Narváez: Might have his own breakaway opportunities occasionally.
Edoardo Affini: Time trial specialist and stage hunter for Jumbo.
Mattias Skjelmose Jensen: Young Trek hopeful in good form.
Edward Theuns: Has a fairly decent grand tour record, could be a dependable option.

4 Credits
Felix Gall: AG2R’s leader, so he’s an absolute bargain. He might be a bit of a ghost, but a decent GC position come Verona and he’s worth it.
Matthew Holmes: Another Lotto Soudal stage hopeful. Expect him to frequent the breaks.
Several Italian breakaway merchants: They may not be worth huge points, but should pick some up in the breaks. These include Mirco Maestri, Davide Bais, Mattia Bais, Davide Gabburo, Alessandro Tonelli, and Luca Rastelli.

That’s it! They are my rather mixed and confusing thoughts. I my view, there’s scope for a team with two of the race favourites and a mix of others, or a more balanced team with only one of them. The question is, can you afford to miss out on big points in the hope that you’ll accrue more overall? Or is a top heavy team with a few bargains the way to go. I’ll only flip back and forth between the two strategies 86 more times before Friday. Our Velogames league code is 230268331. Good luck to all and I’ll pray for everyone’s sanity.