ALRIGHT – Disregard most of the below. Since Ineos, Astana, CCC, Mitchelton-Scott, and Movistar have all pulled out, and teams are now allowed to bring 8 riders instead or seven, and ASO have sent out invites to B&B Hotels and Circus – Wanty, the picture is now very different. I’ll keep an eye on updates to the race and to the game to see if there’s any last minute wisdom I can put together. The bits and pieces mentioned here that are still the same, as of the morning of the 6th of March, are Roglič still favourite, the route, and the three top tier sprinters that are still down to go. Many other things have changed, so stay tuned.
The first major world tour stage race is fast approaching and Velogames has opened their fantasy comp for entries. The added spice this year, is a season long stage race championship taking in 11 top tier stage races including the grand tours and ending at the BinckBank Tour and La Vuelta ciclista a España. There is, as yet, no sign of Le Tour de France in this list, but we can keep our fingers crossed for a positive resolution in that little drama. Anyway! Let’s get to the main issue at hand.
The Route
The parcours follows a similar pattern seen in previous editions: start with flatter stages; a mid-race individual time trial; move into more mountainous terrain; one summit finish; and a lumpy final stage in Nice. On the face of it, I can see at least three sprint stages with the potential for one more on stage 5, depending how the day is raced. Last year the opening three stages were all sprints, with some crosswind action thrown in, and that seems likely to be a repeat this year. The stage 4 time trial is lumpy and short at only 15.1 km followed by a possible 4th sprint stage before the race moves into the mountains of the South of France. Stages 6 and 8 are up and down all day and are the bread to the summit finish sandwich that should decide this year’s GC. Paris-Nice always comes down to the wire though, with whoever is in 2nd place after stage 7 needing to pull a masterful performance out of the bag to claim victory in Nice.
Team Selection
Before going into the main players on the startlist for this year’s race, here’s the points breakdown from the 2019 edition. Top of the pile was Michal Kwiatkowski on 790 points thanks to a consistently high GC placing throughout the race and strong finishes in the crosswinds and in the ITT. Next up, and the only rider within 200 points of Kwiatkowski, was race winner Egan Bernal. He also benefited from high GC placings throughout and three top 10 stage results, the highest of which was 6th in the time trial, proving that the overall win is hugely important for a good points haul. The top sprinters were Groenewegen and Bennett who earned the 5th and 7th highest points totals, so stage finishes aren’t everything.
Overall Contenders
So if you’re prioritising the overall favourites before sprinters, who are the key contenders? It’ll be a similar battle this year with the key stages being the time trial and the summit finish, but Bernal started his march for victory as early as stage 1, by snagging some late bonus seconds and then by performing very decently in the stage 2 crosswinds. Even a cursory glance at a startlist seems to indicate this race will be a straight up dual between Bernal and Primož Roglič, although the latter has yet to start his season and Bernal has been warming up by finishing 4th in the Tour Colombia. Both are 20 credits and the most expensive options, so do you flip a coin? Or do you punt for the rider who has some racing behind him already? Roglič’s form might be an unknown, but I’m expecting him to finish both the TT and the subsequent stages strongly, and a high GC placing should mean a decent points tally.
Others to consider here are the inform Nairo Quintana, 18 credits and 2nd last year. Now racing for Team Arkea Samsic, he’s been let off the leash of competing superstars he was tethered to at Movistar. Two stage race victories this season out of two including a stage win at each. He even achieved a 2nd in the Colombian national time trial and 4th in the road race. He has a packed schedule this year for his new team culminating in another stab at Le Tour de France. Miguel Angel López and Mikel Landa are both 16 pointers who have both enjoyed quietly successful starts to the season. Enric Mas and Sergio Higuita are looking like potential bargains at 12 credits. Higuita especially with the Colombian national road race title under his belt and victory in Tour Colombia. Mas has yet to get going. I would normally include Julian Alaphilippe in this list, but he has said this week that he’s not feeling his best at the moment. He has bigger fish to fry this year at the Ardennes classics and Le Tour, so he would be a gamble at 18 credits.
SPrinters and stage hunters
Confirmed on the current startlist, we have the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best sprinters (according to current PCS standings) in Ackermann, Bennett, and Ewan. They’re all in the game at 14 credits and have shown pretty similar, decent early season form. I would say Ewan just shades it with three wins to the two each for the others. It’s close though, and much will depend on the leadout from each team. We don’t have final rosters for any of these teams yet, Bennett’s is looking the most complete right now, but is lacking a couple of top end leadout men. Ewan has De Buyst, and Ackermann has Drucker. Really it could just be pick your favourite and chose a couple of additional bargain riders.
Speaking of which, Kristoff and Philipsen are both down to go for UAE and are 10 credits each. Jasper Stuyven is also at 10 credits and is in great form after victory at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad last weekend. Iván García and Marc Sarreau are two at 8 credits, and looking even cheaper, there is Cees Bol from Sunweb at 6 credits along with Walscheid and Gibbons of NTT, also at 6 credits. Israel Start-Up Nation could also be taking a competitive team, so keep a look out for an interesting option or two when their team is announced and they’re added to the game.
Covid-19
You might have wondered why I never mentioned Tadej Pogačar in my review. He was down to race, but is currently stuck in quarantine in the UAE and will miss the start. Mitchelton-Scott have also just announced that they won’t be participating at all. So we’ll have to keep our ears open for any developments, other teams may pull out or the organisers could pull the race entirely. The situation in France isn’t quite as serious as Italy where races are quite likely to be pulled, but teams may still decide to take matters into their own hands.
That about wraps her up! This isn’t quite as comprehensive a guide as one for the grand tours will be, with no rider category to restrict choices, but should give you some idea of who to pick. Especially if you’ve missed out on some of the racing this season and have lost the form book. Let me know if there are other riders to watch out for, there’s always a surprise pick or two to come from every race.
EDIT
Since writing this yesterday, Ineos, Mitchelton-Scott, and Astana have all withdrawn from racing for the next few weeks. So no Paris-Nice, Strade Bianche, Tirreno-Adriatico, or Milan-Sanremo for them. I would be very surprised if any of the Italian races go ahead, and we may see more teams withdrawing from Paris-Nice in the next few days.
The Pelotonian 